The position of the deep periphery of the periphery of what we now commonly call the Western Balkans in the European and even broader global chain of new value production, including ideas, or simply put, the food chain, is here to stay for a longer period with a non-negligible potential for escalation from periodic crises. After this observation, one cannot help but recall the prophetic words of Ante Marković from the period before the end of the world in the countries formed by the dissolution.
“We will pay for delusions with poverty and a position of deep periphery”
The post-conflict years, as it turned out later, unfounded hopes that it would be possible to create more or less functional and sustainable states and societies, were replaced by years of despair, manifested in the epic exodus of the population from the Balkans towards Western Europe. The stifling provincial atmosphere and small-town spirit are far from an inspiring environment for many who want better.
The material base, devastated by desperate privatization, which left behind a post-transition desert, certainly does not offer much hope for transformation into a solid economy.
On the contrary, comprador elites, on a short leash of global economic players, are not natural allies in the fight for inclusive institutions and more just societies. At the same time, for internal use, identity politics continue to be the dominant narrative for legitimizing the power of unsuccessful political elites, who are far from having output legitimacy, or that it can even be remotely associated with the effect or results of power.
The economic model based on the use of cheap labor in the manufacturing industry and the extraction of natural resources hardly carries the seed of change for the better. The public sector, hypertrophied to the point of caricature, has long become an end in itself, or more precisely, as the prey of political elites, it exclusively serves their enrichment and as a means of maintaining power. Unscrupulously captured by the pseudo-elite and completely subordinated to narrow interests at the expense of the general and public, the public sector produces immeasurable losses for the state and society and unimaginable prosperity for the narrow circle of the team at the top of the pyramid of apparently unlimited power.
The enormous dissatisfaction of the remaining, diminishing population is channeled through mass departures to Western European countries. Because, as Ivan Krastev well formulated, it is obviously easier to change the state than the government. The exodus to Europe is even a win-win scenario for the ruling political elites, as the most dissatisfied leave, reducing the social pressure that could potentially lead to changes, and in addition, the effect of remittances sent by those who left to families and friends is not negligible.
Therefore, one does not need to be a great expert to conclude that the transformational potential within the Western Balkan states, what would be called grassroots, for serious structural social and economic changes and a fairer distribution of power and resources is on a downward trajectory.
The transformational power of the EU in the Balkans has long been discussed, but it has long since not been taken for granted. Undoubtedly, the EU integration process was and still is the main driver of changes and reforms in the Western Balkans. But there are more and more indicators that the process in its current form and shape is clinically dead, and is increasingly becoming a political and social non-topic in the states and societies of the Western Balkans, after years eaten up by hypocritical Balkan political elites, for whom the status quo is the only and true interest.
Signs of life in the European integration process that began to appear after the granting of candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova are of a geopolitical nature and should be taken with a lot of reserve. Geopolitical changes are unpredictable, and in a changed context, they can have a completely different direction, and in addition, the global center of gravity of the great games of superpowers is increasingly concentrating on Asia and the Pacific.
Of course, the EU integration process does not take place in a vacuum, but in a wider environment that is not the most favorable to it. Reforming the voting method within the EU is certainly a priority without which it is impossible to imagine serious progress in the integration of the Western Balkans. The nationalization of the EU enlargement process, that is, the increasingly strong role of member states at the expense of EU institutions, has long been highlighted as a major burden on the EU enlargement process. Furthermore, the increasingly strong introduction of bilateral issues into the accession process, as is the case with Bulgaria towards Macedonia, certainly does not promise to bring anything good for candidate countries nor does it help strengthen the EU’s credibility in the hilly Balkans.
In any case, the EU accession process remains an equation with many unknowns. It is not known whether and when any of the 6 Western Balkan countries will become a full member, nor whether the Europeanization of the Western Balkan states as the imagined end of Balkan history is really a likely outcome.
There are many challenges in the upcoming period, even in the short or medium term. Due to the dramatic outflow of population, Western Balkan economies will be forced to import labor. How this process will be managed in unstable and dysfunctional states is a big question, especially if we know that even in countries of serious Western democracies it had dramatic effects through the strengthening of the right and paradigm shifts in terms of the perception of the political mainstream.
Furthermore, the deep-rooted nature of organized crime and the specific way of managing the state and society through the connection of political parties, organized crime, secret services and religious communities, in the context of completely devastated institutions and a disenfranchised majority of the population for whom even access to human rights and freedoms is a luxury, will certainly be an enormous challenge.
A specific form of political corruption, state capture, has completely led to all political, economic and social processes being based on corruption. Getting out of such a state is a complex process, and does not happen overnight, but there are successful examples, which means that it is not impossible to change things even in the short term.
Of course, it is not always easy to understand the endlessly complex reality even with the help of complexity theories, and it is even more difficult to make predictions, especially those concerning the future, as Yogi Berra would say.
However, it seems possible and certainly to conclude that in their current form (of course, this does not refer to borders) the Western Balkan states simply will not be able to be EU members in its current form.
The good news is that changes are happening constantly and without cessation – panta rei. Now, how satisfied we are with their speed and their direction is perhaps a question worth thinking about especially for Europe Day. It is also worth imagining whether these changes are spontaneous or whether we as a society have at least a minimal awareness of the need to manage them and the goals we strive for. Or as the aforementioned Yogi Berra said, “If you don’t know where you’re going, you might not get there!”
Still, don’t think too much, May 9 is both a holiday and a reminder that good ideas and justice sometimes win.
Happy Europe Day!
