The year is ending. Time to take stock. In brief, it seems that three events marked the outgoing year: the Russian aggression against Ukraine, yet another farcical election, and the economic crisis.
The granting of EU candidate status to BiH hardly meets any criterion for an event that marked the year, given that it is an empty formal-bureaucratic act that can hardly have any significant effect, and which followed what was probably the worst EC report in the history of European integration, especially after the situation in the country dramatically worsened since the EU issued its opinion on candidacy.
The integration process of Western Balkan countries has been in deep crisis for years due to well-known reasons, and without significant changes within the EU, member states, and Western Balkan countries, this process will continue to be in cold storage, with sporadic pledges of its importance and the absence of alternatives, but without significant results.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine, a tragedy of epic proportions and undoubtedly a historic turning point—Zeitenwende, as Chancellor Scholz characterized it—has once again made war a reality in Europe with a high risk of escalation. In response to the aggression, the EU granted candidate status for membership to Ukraine, thus also remembering the neglected Balkan periphery where candidate countries and potential candidates have been languishing for years without a real prospect of membership.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine, on the Balkan periphery of Europe, in addition to energy and economic consequences, has opened another line of division: between those who are in solidarity with Ukraine and share the EU’s foreign policy approach and those who are not. This division has, of course, not bypassed BiH either, where RS and the ruling party have openly sided with the aggressor. Even if we disregard ethical considerations or the question of basic solidarity, such a policy is difficult to understand even from an interest perspective, given that the EU is the key development, trade, and every other partner for both BiH and RS within it.
The October elections, clearly expected to be so long before they were held, were a complete farce. A ritual that at regular intervals attempts to create the appearance of legitimacy for the ruling oligarchy. Neither fair nor honest, questionable in every single step of the electoral cycle—from campaigning with public resources and buying voter support with those same public resources, chaotic voter lists, tragicomic electoral boards, to counting that was not even necessary because the results were determined earlier—these elections were nevertheless important as a reminder that the right to freely choose will not happen by itself, and that those who hold power, in order to preserve it, will not hesitate to unscrupulously abuse everything at their disposal—if they are allowed to, of course. This should also be an incentive, at least for those who value having that freedom and right—to choose, to do everything they can to change things.
The authorities’ attitude toward the economic crisis and inflation should also be an incentive to change things. According to official data, BiH is among the countries with the highest inflation rate in Europe at nearly 18%. BiH is probably the only country in Europe that has not taken any measures to address the consequences of the massive price increases and deterioration of living standards.
So, we return again to the question of political and all other accountability: why would the authorities behave responsibly when they are absolutely not held accountable for what they do.
If we intend to change things in this increasingly unpredictable and complex regional, European, and global environment, we must start from the beginning, from accountability or, more simply, from being held to account.
The current approach, according to all available indicators, is leading us nowhere except to further decline. One of the highest COVID mortality rates, one of the highest mortality rates related to air pollution, the highest rate of citizens leaving the country. And so on.
Transparency International BiH has made its modest contribution to opening public debate on how to stop the country’s further decline and the suffering of citizens by publishing its own vision at the beginning of December at the annual anti-corruption conference, articulated in the Good Governance Agenda.
The foundation of the Agenda is based on that good old Einstein principle that it may not be the smartest thing to repeat or do the same thing while expecting a different outcome.
The Agenda starts from the core of the problem, which is the fact that power is concentrated in the hands of a handful of leaders who have captured key institutions and subordinated them to their interests. Therefore, the agenda advocates as a priority the democratization of political parties and the introduction of mandatory voting. These are precisely the measures that have proven to be a beneficial remedy against widespread clientelism and systemic political corruption in other countries.
Furthermore, the agenda proposes a general inventory or thorough functional review or audit of the entire public sector—whether we need so many institutions and public sector employees, given that while the population is decreasing, the public sector is growing, because it serves as a stronghold for corrupt kleptocrats to preserve power by mobilizing support through the allocation of public sector jobs. According to TI BiH data, 95% of public sector jobs are distributed according to clientelistic criteria.
No less important is ensuring protection of public funds in the public procurement process and concession awards, as these processes are key to extracting money from the budget. Thus, the agenda proposes an approach that has proven effective in other countries, based on centralization of public procurement, i.e., conducting procurement in one place by specialized bodies, which reduces opportunities for corruption and facilitates oversight.
This is certainly not everything, nor is there an end to our creativity, but for a pre-New Year text, this is enough, and for those more interested and dedicated to reflection, we recommend that you familiarize yourself with the Agenda in its entirety.
And what remains for us is to fill in that blank line in the title of the text… better, worse, or the same, whatever it may be, as long as others do not fill it in for us…
Happy New Year!
